By Bashir Aliyu
Nigeria’s Public Finance System Records Spending More Effectively Than It Delivers Results, Athena Centre Report Finds
Policy Pulse report calls for outcome-based budgeting, integrated performance systems, and stronger results accountability
A new Athena Policy Pulse by the Athena Centre for Policy and Leadership finds that Nigeria has developed substantial mechanisms for tracking public expenditure but lacks an equally strong system for determining whether that spending produces measurable improvements in citizens’ lives.
Beyond Transparency: Building Results Accountability in Nigeria’s Public Finance System, by Izuchukwu Christiantus Anyanwu and Chinaza Igwe, argues that the central question facing Nigeria’s public-finance system is no longer whether government is spending, but whether public spending produces verifiable, sustained public value.
The report notes that Nigeria’s 2026 Federal Budget is ₦27.5 trillion, while approximately 41.6 per cent of federally retained revenue went to debt service in 2025. Across the 2024–2026 MTEF, more than ₦5.9 trillion was allocated to health, ₦7.4 trillion to education, over ₦10 trillion to infrastructure and approximately ₦5.8 trillion to defence and security. Yet higher spending has not consistently translated into better healthcare access, learning outcomes, transport efficiency or security conditions.
The report identifies the problem as institutional rather than simply fiscal. Budgeting remains input-driven; legislative oversight focuses heavily on appropriation rather than previous performance; ministries and agencies are incentivised to execute budgets rather than demonstrate functional outcomes; financial systems remain disconnected from sectoral performance data; and auditing remains predominantly compliance-focused.
The report concludes that Nigeria has built a transparency architecture without building a results-accountability architecture.
It recommends four institutional reforms:
Publish a results annex alongside the annual Appropriation Bill, linking programme allocations to measurable outcomes.
Require ex-post-performance briefs from MDAs before new capital projects are approved within the MTEF cycle.
Expand value-for-money audits and integrate their findings into budget preparation.
Upgrade GIFMIS to interface with sectoral outcome systems, transforming it from a transaction ledger into a results-accountability platform.
The report identifies the 2027–2029 MTEF as a critical institutional decision point. Embedding performance data into budgeting, appropriation and audit, it argues, will determine whether Nigeria’s public-finance system becomes a mechanism for delivering public value or remains primarily focused on expenditure management
