Osun 2026 Governorship Poll: Registered Voters, Turnout Rise as Winner’s Margin More Than Doubles — AEO
By Bashir Aliyu, Abuja
The margin separating the winner and runner-up in the 2026 Osun State governorship election more than doubled compared to the 2022 poll, even as both leading candidates recorded higher vote totals, according to a preliminary statement released by the Athena Election Observatory (AEO).
The data note, the first in AEO’s 2026 election series, compares the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) declared results from the 2022 and 2026 governorship elections in the state.
Electorate and turnout grow
Figures contained in the AEO note show that the number of registered voters in Osun rose from 1,952,387 in 2022 to 2,339,544 in 2026, an increase of 19.8 percent. Accredited voters climbed from 827,218 to 1,010,684, a rise of 22.2 percent, while total votes cast increased by the same margin, from 823,124 to 1,005,800.
Despite the expansion in the voter register, the accreditation rate — the share of registered voters who were accredited — moved only marginally, from 42.37 percent in 2022 to 43.20 percent in 2026.
Results summary
According to the results declared by INEC, valid votes cast in the state rose from 804,450 in 2022 to 985,079 in 2026, an increase of 22.5 percent. Rejected votes also increased, from 18,674 to 20,721.
The winner’s margin — the gap between the top two candidates — widened significantly, from 28,344 votes in 2022 to 66,252 votes in 2026, representing a 133.7 percent increase.
Candidate performance
In the 2022 election, Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) polled 403,371 votes (50.13 percent) to defeat Gboyega Oyetola of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who scored 375,027 votes (46.63 percent). Kehinde Atanda of the ADP came third with 10,104 votes (1.26 percent).
In the 2026 election, Adeleke, now contesting under the Accord party, increased his vote total to 511,067 (51.90 percent), defeating Munirudeen B. Oyebamiji of the APC, who polled 444,815 votes (45.17 percent). Najeem Salaam of the ADC placed third with 17,180 votes (1.75 percent).
AEO’s assessment
In its assessment, AEO said the growth in the electorate and the strength of competition between the two leading parties made large-scale manipulation more difficult to execute without detection, noting that organised political competition — built on polling-unit agents, party structure and independent result-tracking — serves as a safeguard for electoral integrity.
The observatory also pointed to improvements in INEC’s election technology, including the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal, which it said are strengthening the audit trail from the polling unit. It added, however, that gaps remain around transmission timelines, system resilience and reconciliation across digital records.
AEO said it is now moving from election-night monitoring to a post-election audit phase, which will involve reconciling polling-unit results, BVAS accreditation data and Forms EC8B–E with INEC’s final declaration.
“We are not asking who should have won. Voters have voted, and INEC has exercised its statutory responsibility to declare the winner,” the observatory said, adding that its focus going forward is on whether “the complete electoral record support[s] the declared result.”
The AEO data note is classified as final, drawn from INEC-declared results, with the observatory assigning it a “high” confidence rating.